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Volume 10, Number 4, 2020, Pages 1561-1587                                                                DOI:10.11948/20190252
Modeling and dynamics of HIV transmission among high-risk groups in Guangzhou city, China
Peng Wu,Hongyong Zhao
Keywords:Basic reproduction number, HIV high-risk groups, permanence, sensitivity analysis.
      In this paper, a multicompartmental model is formulated to study how HIV is transmitted among different HIV high-risk groups, including MSM (men who have sex with men), FRs (foreigner residents), FSWs (female sex workers), and IDUs (injection drug users). The explicit expression for the basic reproduction number is obtained via the next generation matrix approach. We show that the disease free equilibrium is locally as well as globally asymptotically stable (the disease goes to extinction) when the basic reproduction number is less than unity, and the disease is always present when the basic reproduction number is larger than unity. As an illustration of our theoretical results, we conduct numerical simulations. We also conduct a case study where model parameters are estimated from the demographic and epidemiological data from Guangzhou. Using the parameter estimates, we predict the HIV/AIDS trend for each high-risk group. Furthermore, our study suggests that reducing the transmission routes of the disease and increasing condom use will be useful for control of HIV transmission.
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